Since first erupting in the Chinese city of Wuhan earlier this year, the coronavirus pandemic has impacted one industry more than any other – commercial aviation. Due to the nature of air travel and its vulnerability to the spread of infectious diseases, planes have been grounded worldwide with daily flight traffic reduced by up to 95%. Travel warnings and entry bans remain in force across much of the globe.
The crisis in aviation has been one of the most remarkable aspects of the global economic shutdown that began in March. This unprecedented state of paralysis was perhaps best captured by a cover of The Economist which showed a picture of the world and a sign saying, "Closed" (an evolution from the publication's cover illustration a couple weeks earlier, which had shown the world wearing the Chinese flag as a face mask).
From Chinese cover-up to global shutdown – the pandemic's evolution in covers of 'The Economist'.
At present, it remains unclear when or even if flying will return to normal. A lot depends on the development and distribution of a vaccine which, according to even the most ambitious estimates, could take at least a year, perhaps several. Numerous airline executives have said that they do not expect passenger numbers to return to previous levels for several years, with a state of crisis continuing until 2022 or even later.
So what will happen in the meantime? Are people soon going to start flying again? Will airlines be able to gradually resume flights, as they are planning to do this summer? Or are planes going to stay grounded for longer yet? And how will the industry be permanently transformed as a result?
Here in China, there are growing signs of a "new normal" emerging for air travel, one which may offer a glimpse of things to come for the rest of the world. As the nation where the new coronavirus was first detected in December last year, China has inadvertently become the world's primary test case for dealing with the outbreak. And with a relatively low number of infections recorded since March, something resembling normal work and life has now returned to the country, even up in Chinese airspace.
Many countries, still struggling with sustained numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, are now wondering how they can achieve the same. And as it was with attempting to control the spread of the virus on the ground, others may do well to consider China's broadly successful efforts to restart its airborne economy.
I recently got a glimpse of how this has been achieved while flying domestically here, the first time I had done so since January. From my passenger's-eye view, I noticed many measures being taken in airports and airplanes. But while many of the changes to air travel are easy to see, there are also things going on imperceptibly behind the scenes.
A 'sign' of the times at Beijing Capital in May – many domestic flights scheduled (left) but only two international flights, CA991 and CA987, to Los Angeles and Vancouver (right).
Landside – Distancing, Disinfecting and Temperature Taking
Inside airport terminals, as in many public spaces in China, distancing measures are in theory still being applied. In practice, however, it appears to be basically impossible for people to stay truly distanced while queuing in the airport.
An instruction to keep a metre apart has little effect on passengers lining up close together.
Social distancing in Chinese airports – the theory vs the reality...
It must be said, though, that while distancing doesn't really happen in China, pretty much everyone is wearing a mask. To further reduce the possibility for viral transmission in airports, touchscreens are replacing staff at check-in desks, as is now the case at Beijing Capital. But again, this works better in theory than in practice, at least from my experience – for some reason my passport wasn't recognised by the scanner so I ended up having to queue again and be checked in manually...
Self check-in screens at Beijing Capital Airport.
Even if touchscreens do work for most passengers, they need to be frequently wiped clean after being constantly contaminated by whatever substances may be transferred from people's fingers. This has led some developers to explore the possibility of screens operated by a passenger's own smartphone or even through head movement.
The same applies to other physical touch points, such as fold-down tables and the trays used for scanning your bags. (Studies have found them to be dirtier even than airport toilets!) Perspex screens may appear anywhere that contact with airport staff is still required. And buttons on lifts/elevators and other surfaces may be covered with removable plastic sheets, like this:
Thus sanitisers and decontamination measures are being dramatically increased, as is already evident in airports and other public transit settings across China. But alongside human operators, critical cleaning work is increasingly be carried out by robots. Machines are being used to sanitise suitcases, trolleys and even passengers! This is already the case in Hong Kong, where full-body disinfection booths have recently been trialled.
The CleanTech disinfection booth at HKIA. Fancy stepping inside one of these?! (CNN)
A machine that sterilizes baggage trolleys at Shanghai Hongqiao Airport.
While I did not have to be personally disinfected on my recent Beijing-Shanghai flights, I did have to submit to temperature checks both upon entering the airport, and then two more times when boarding and disembarking the plane. Temperature checks are not too much trouble – it takes no more than a few seconds to offer a wrist to a member of staff holding a thermometer or walk past a heat-sensing camera. Then again, it's just yet another item on an ever-growing list of irritating airport checks.
Signs alerting passengers that they are subject to temperature screening.
Things could soon get even worse for international flights, as passengers may be tested for the coronavirus prior to travelling and/or soon after landing. As cross-border flight services gradually increase, it could be that authorities allow passengers to get tested offsite within a specified time frame, as is happening in some countries. Or it could be, as is currently the case both in Hong Kong and mainland China, that all inbound international travellers have to submit to a blood test or deep-throat swab on site, whether in the airport or a nearby holding facility.
A pop-up clinic at Beijing Capital Airport for temperature screening of passengers.
Airside – Distancing, Covering and Downsizing
On board the plane, distancing measures are to some extent also being practiced. Middle seats are being left empty as much as possible (as I discovered on one pretty quiet flight). But again, there are clearly limits to how effective this is. A single empty seat does not create that much distance, and it is not always possible (as I experienced on another much busier flight, during the Friday evening peak).
The Air China app showed that most of the middle seats were empty on a non-peak flight.
In the long term, leaving so many seats vacant will not be commercially viable for airlines. For the short term, though, quieter planes will likely be the rule rather than the exception.
As in terminals, everyone on the plane is wearing a mask and sometimes other protective gear such as gloves, goggles and face shields. This is nothing new in China, where facial coverings have been widely worn in public for months, and have not been uncommon in airports ever since the SARS outbreak of 2003.
But masks are now being worn in many other countries and, after months of advising against facial coverings, the World Health Organisation is finally advocating mask use for the general public. Some US airlines will now blacklist or even remove passengers who don't cover their faces.
Masked up inside an uncrowded cabin!
From my own experience, wearing a loose fitting surgical mask is not too uncomfortable on a short two-hour flight – it's amazing how quickly you get used to something if it is mandatory! But mask wearing definitely changes the mood on the plane. Forget about being greeted on board by the beaming smile of an air stewardess. I actually felt quite sorry for the cabin crew on my flights, some of whom looked visibly suffocated wearing the more close-fitting N95-style respirators.
The net result of all this testing, temperature taking, sanitising and mask wearing is an air travel experience that is even less glamorous and enjoyable than it used to be. Hot meals (on airlines which still serve them) have now been replaced by plastic-wrapped food both on board and in lounges. On a recent economy flight I took with Air China, my reward for going through all the hassle required to get on the plane was a rather depressing cheese and luncheon meat sandwich and bottle of water:
Spare a thought for all those premium travellers up in business and first. At least in the pre-pandemic era they could look forward to a glass of Champagne and a half-decent meal while relaxing in the comfort of their club lounge or cabin. Now they, too, are having a taste of what if feels like to fly 'cattle class'!
Spare a thought also for the in-flight catering industry which has been devastated by the effects of the pandemic. It's just one of many parts of the aviation eco-system that we would not usually think twice about , but which provides jobs and livelihoods for thousands if not millions of people. Asian airport services giant SATS Ltd expects losses of up to $70 million this year, while global catering firm GateGourmet has been repurposed to make meals for people experiencing food insecurity.
Upon Arrival – Form Filling, Risk Ratings and Health Tracking If the sanitising and mask wearing I mentioned above are like "hardware" updates for airports and airplanes, then they will come with some "software" refreshes, too. And just like actual computer programs these days, some of those updates may prove rather controversial because of the sensitive personal data that they involve.
Next time you get off an international flight, you will likely have to fill in forms declaring your recent travel history. (This has been a requirement for domestic travel in China since late January.) You may also be required to self-isolate or quarantine on arrival, especially if you have recently somewhere with a severe outbreak. Or, if you are coming from a place hit particularly hard by the coronavirus, you will probably not even be allowed onto a plane at all.
Health code apps used in Shanghai and Beijing for entering certain public spaces.
How will this be determined? Ideally, a system of risk levels would be administered by supranational bodies like the World Health Organisation, the World Tourism Organisation and the International Air Transport Association. But, at a time when international cooperation appears to be at its nadir, such an idea seems fanciful!
The more likely scenario is that individual nations will determine their own systems for grading the risk level of other countries. There is also increasingly talk of air bridges or bubbles where two or more countries agree a framework for allowing mutual passenger flows. But how exactly this would work remains to be seen. And with new quarantine rules and flight restrictions recently announced in the UK and the US, the situation for free international movement could possibly get even worse before it gets better.
Aside from form filling and risk ratings, international passengers may have to install apps on their phones (like the ones that have been trialled in the UK and the US) so that authorities can keep tabs on our movements and interactions. Again, such measures have been present in China, South Korea and other countries for months, and have become essential to travelling within and between cities.
Clearly there are concerns about this use of people's data, which could compromise privacy and encourage excessive state surveillance. As Yuval Noah Harari warned about in his March FT article, there is a risk in times of crisis, when citizens are rightly worried for their personal safety, that they allow governments to legalise highly unusual and invasive policy actions. (Incidentally, some commentators have argued that this is precisely what Beijing is attempting with its controversial Hong Kong National Security Bill.)
But, rather than worries over an overreaching state, the worst thing about data tracking software may simply be the added hassle it brings to the air travel experience. When apps are rolled out, there will inevitably be teething problems, as was the case here in China. One day back in April, a widely-used health tracking app suddenly changed the status of all foreign users from "No abnormal conditions" to "Home observation" for no apparent reason. For those of us affected, there was cause for concern and inconvenience until the glitch was resolved after several hours.
On another occasion, while trying to get a quick lunch near my office, I naively popped into a mall across the road. Just to get into the building I had to use TWO different tracking apps to show my health status, fill in a hard-copy form with my name, passport number and contact details, and then walk through a temperature scanner. All of this as security personnel staff wearing full hazmat suits looked on closely!
Behind the Scenes – Increasing State Control
Beyond these visible changes to the way we fly, there are also some changes happening in aviation that we won't really see at all, but which are nevertheless highly consequential. I'm talking here about the way that airlines will be managed and owned in the post-pandemic era.
As the global aviation shutdown continues, airlines are losing hundreds of billions of dollars through a nightmare combination of lost revenues and mounting pandemic-related costs. Hundreds of thousands of airline staff are being laid off as a result, with some carriers furloughing or firing up to 90% of their workforce. Plane manufacturer Boeing has cut 12,000 jobs!
One result of all this prolonged turmoil is that airfares will rise as airlines try desperately to improve their cash flow. But even with price increases, rising debt and costs could make aviation a very precarious business and possibly even an unprofitable one for many years to come. Ultimately, there is only one guarantor that can afford to make sustained financial losses on the costly but nevertheless critical business of flying. That, of course, is the government.
And this is where China's example may again indicate a possible new normal for air travel. In China, the majority of airlines and the Big Three carriers that dominate the market are all state-owned. This may not come as a surprise – China is well-known for its state-led mode of capitalism, the successor system to a socialist planned economy where public ownership was the only form of ownership.
An employee wearing personal protective equipment looks out of an Air China plane (Jekesai Njikizana/AFP/Getty Images).
But China's airlines haven't always been so state-dominated, as the scholar Sarah Eaton has written about. After Beijing embraced the opening up of its economy from the late 1970s onwards, commercial aviation was privatised more than any of the other critical "commanding heights" sectors like energy and heavy industry. The number of airlines in China swelled from around 11 in 1987 to a peak of more than 40 just eight years later!
This, unsurprisingly, led to price wars and problems of over-investment in China's nascent aviation sector. So, around the early 2000s, Beijing changed its mind and decided it would actually prefer to own most of its aviation assets, especially the biggest, most important ones. It was part of a broader strategy to create large state-owned enterprises (known as "national champions") in critical sectors of the economy.
China's leaders knew that aviation could be extremely valuable and profitable, but also realised it is highly cost-intensive and exposed to unpredictable risks (like pandemics, for example). In their minds, the best owner to take on those risks and benefit from any result profit was the state itself. Only with public ownership of major airlines, Beijing believed, could China's aviation industry be sustainable and competitive on a global scale, so as to serve the country's long-term economic and security interests.
An employee disinfects an almost empty airport restaurant arranged for individual eating – could this ever be commercially viable for private companies?
Fast forward to today's paralysed, pandemic-ridden world and that decision seems to have been a pretty good one. Chinese state-owned airlines Air China, China Eastern and China Southern may not offer the best in terms of passenger comfort, but they are better placed to withstand a crisis. And it is not just China's but also other state-led carriers in Southeast Asia and the Persian Gulf that have been able to weather this storm more easily.
We may even be seeing the start of a re-nationalisation of the world's aviation industry. In Europe, Alitalia in Italy and Lufthansa in Germany have each been fully and partly re-nationalised by their respective governments. In Latin America, major carriers Avianca and Latam are seeking government bailouts. And in Africa, South African Airways has already achieved just that, securing $1.2 billion in state funds.
While no British or US carriers have yet been taken over by the state, they are certainly heading in that direction, receiving bailouts and state aid on an unprecedented scale. The remnants of bankrupt UK carrier Flybe may yet be taken into public ownership, while British Airways already partially is, just not in Britain. (Its parent company IAG is now 25% owned by Qatar Airways, which is ultimately wholly owned by the state of Qatar.)
Just last week, the government of Hong Kong announced that it would take a 6% stake in the struggling airline Cathay Pacific. It is the first time city's government has directly invested in a private company since the mid-1980s! And other countries such as Kenya and Portugual are also considering nationalising their major carriers.
All of this is happening as pandemic costs are mounting and airlines are already dealing with the growing risks of climate activism and environmental red tape. If those risks and costs continue to escalate, as seems very likely, then it may not be long before we see more airlines across the world receive direct investment or even significant ownership by national governments. Who knows, maybe even in that promised land of free market capitalism, the US?!
Final Approach – Are we Arriving at a New Normal?
The worldwide shutdown of air travel has left me very conflicted. On the one hand, it has made our skies quieter and cleaner than they have been for years. The whole world has been forced to reevaluate the unsustainable, heavily polluting business of flying. People are taking the opportunity to spend more time at home, or at least in their home countries, rather than contribute to the growing problems of over-tourism that exist in many parts of the world.
On the other hand, the global grounding of planes means that I am temporarily unable to travel. This June I had planned to go back to England for a two-week summer break. For someone who lives half way across the world from family and close friends, the inability to fly internationally is a major concern.
But apart from not being able to go home, I feel conflicted for another reason. For me, air travel is not just for the places it can take me, but also about the experience itself. While flying these days can be incredibly tiring and frustrating, even downright exasperating, there is still something incredibly special about travelling by airplane.
I will admit it, I love flying. I love the rapid ascent into the sky on board a jumbo jet. I love sipping a cocktail at 40,000 feet. I love watching in-flight entertainment for hours on end. I love the game of collecting air miles. I love the unique and slightly strange terminology that is used on airplanes. I even love analysing the business of air travel (unless you hadn't noticed by now...)
An Air China plane takes off at sunset (Caixin).
For these reasons, I hope that air travel is able to recover quickly and easily to something resembling its former self. But at the same time, I hope that the industry can emerge from this crisis as something that is leaner, cleaner and more sustainable than before.
One thing is certain: to get planes flying internationally again, steps need to be taken to protect and reassure passengers. And while such measures would need to last for the remaining duration of this pandemic, there's a possibility they could become more permanent. Because, while the chance of similar pandemic occurring may be very small, the costs of another shutdown would be catastrophic for the industry.
In this sense, then, the coronavirus pandemic has likely changed flying forever.
Comparisons have been made with the terrorist attacks of September 11th, 2001. But for airlines and passengers, the effects of this crisis will likely be felt for much longer and in far more severe ways than 9-11 or anything else that has come before.
This reality was brought home to me this week here in Beijing. After a couple months without a single local transmission, the city has seen a new outbreak of almost two hundred cases. As a result, travel restrictions have been reimposed and thousands of flights in and out of the city have been cancelled. Like many other Beijingers, I have had no choice but to postpone a business trip and work from home for the time being.
Beijing Capital Airport was almost empty again this week following a new outbreak in the city.
And here we arrive at the most defining feature of the new normal for air travel: continued disruption and disorder for an indefinitely long time to come. In China and across the world, there will be further COVID-19 flareups that will lead to restrictions being reimposed and planes being grounded once more. Airlines and flyers may wish for a quick, easy return to the old normal. But that's just not how it's going to be.
To use some aviation speak, the new normal for air travel won't be a short direct flight with a smooth takeoff and descent. Rather, the industry's recovery will be a bumpy journey full of air pockets, aborted landings, and possibly even some diversions en route. So let's just sit back and try to enjoy the ride...
Thanks for reading.
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